Define
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 107
Churchill Downs · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Del Mar | ? | 8th | 2nd | +5 |
| 2026-07-18 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-23 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-09-20 | Gowran Park | ? | 4th | 8th | −3 |
| 2025-07-20 | Curragh | ? | 7th | 11th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +11.1% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07/2025 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |
| 20/09/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 63% | -0.11 |
| 23/03/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 89% | +0.02 |
| 18/07/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 23/08/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |