11
Differently
6yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 90
Churchill Downs · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#11
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength3%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -2.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-06-03 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-03-13 | Fair Grounds | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-02-20 | Fair Grounds | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-01-04 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 10th | 13th | −3 |
| 2025-05-08 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 138% of fieldRange 6-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength20%
Delivery trend +3.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/12/2024 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 15/12/2024 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 70% | +0.02 |
| 26/01/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 20% | -0.48 |
| 08/05/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 04/01/2026 | 10th | 10/1 | 47% | 10% | -0.37 |
| 20/02/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |
| 13/03/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |
| 03/06/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 21/07/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |