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12

Gallant Greta

5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 103

Churchill Downs · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m 110y

#7

Rank

Odds

7/5

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength69%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 2.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.5
Today:
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Aqueduct 24/04/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 70 · 1m Fm 126 · beat its mark24/04/2025 · OR 70 par24/04C6OR 70C5 @ Belmont At The Big A 22/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 68 · 1m Fm 126 · beat its mark22/06/2025 · OR 68 parC5 @ Saratoga 23/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 75 · 1m110y Fm 125 · beat its mark23/08/2025 · OR 75 par23/08C5OR 75C6 @ Belmont At The Big A 11/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 87 · 1m110y Fm 124 · below its mark11/09/2025 · OR 87 parC5 @ Belmont At The Big A 25/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 93 · 1m110y Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/10/2025 · OR 93 par25/10C5OR 93C6 @ Aqueduct 06/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 95 · 1m110y Fm 123 · beat its mark06/11/2025 · OR 95 parC5 @ Gulfstream 24/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 100 · 1m3f Gd 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark24/12/2025 · OR 100 par24/12C5OR 100C1 @ Gulfstream 24/01/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 104 · 1m4f Gd 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark24/01/2026 · OR 104 parC1 @ Gulfstream 28/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 102 · 1m3f Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/02/2026 · OR 102 par28/02C1OR 102projClass-projected finish: 1st of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-02-28Gulfstream?5th0th+4
2026-01-24Gulfstream?9th4th+4
2025-12-24Gulfstream?2nd1st+1
2025-11-06Aqueduct?1st2nd−1
2025-10-25Belmont At The Big A?2nd1st+1
2025-09-11Belmont At The Big A?2nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0411/0924/1228/02
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend +1.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/04/20251st5/493%100%+0.07
22/06/20252nd2/189%88%-0.02
23/08/20251st10/1195%100%+0.05
11/09/20252nd8/1397%86%-0.11
25/10/20252nd9/276%88%+0.11
06/11/20251st2/598%100%+0.02
24/12/20252nd10/147%86%+0.38
24/01/20269th20/10%0%0.00
28/02/20265th12/137%43%+0.06