1
High South
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 98
Churchill Downs · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-21 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-01-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-06-18 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-05-18 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 3-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength34%
Delivery trend -9.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/05/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 18/06/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 24/01/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 70% | -0.04 |
| 21/02/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 44% | -0.37 |
| 09/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 22/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 78% | -0.04 |