13
Hold My Halo
6yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 93
Churchill Downs · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#12
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-02-22 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-01-18 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-01-03 | Turfway Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2025-04-27 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1342% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength59%
Delivery trend +2.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/12/2024 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 36% | +0.10 |
| 02/03/2025 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 22/03/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 64% | +0.37 |
| 27/04/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 30/10/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 03/01/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 18/01/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 22/02/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 21/08/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 86% | +0.59 |