9
Kittens Stormy Gal
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 88
Churchill Downs · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-09 | Ellis Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-04-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-03-26 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2025-11-23 | Churchill Downs | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1367% of fieldRange 4-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength40%
Delivery trend +1.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/09/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 06/10/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 01/11/2025 | 12th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/11/2025 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 26/03/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 29/04/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 23/05/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 09/07/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 21/08/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |