8
La Cantera
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 97
Churchill Downs · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#10
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Ellis Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-21 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-02-21 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 130% of fieldRange 11-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -4.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 13th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/11/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 88% | +0.16 |
| 26/12/2025 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 24/01/2026 | 5th | 11/8 | 93% | 60% | -0.33 |
| 21/02/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 88% | +0.03 |
| 21/03/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 44% | -0.38 |
| 18/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 88% | +0.01 |
| 19/06/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |
| 09/07/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 22/08/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 22% | -0.51 |