2
Raconteuse
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 88
Churchill Downs · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -2.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-05-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-04-23 | Keeneland | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-03-07 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-02-06 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1392% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength57%
Delivery trend +7.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/02/2025 | 10th | 5/1 | 74% | 10% | -0.64 |
| 23/11/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 25% | -0.41 |
| 20/12/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 91% | +0.28 |
| 06/02/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 88% | -0.03 |
| 07/03/2026 | 3rd | 8/15 | 97% | 60% | -0.37 |
| 23/04/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 29/05/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 21/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 89% | -0.02 |
| 08/08/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |