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4

Tramuntana

3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 82

Churchill Downs · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m 110y

#8

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Churchill Downs 13/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR - · 6f 11913/09C6C6 @ Keeneland 15/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 88 · 7f Fas 119 · below its mark15/10/2025 · OR 88 par15/10C6OR 88C6 @ Churchill Downs 01/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 77 · 7f Fas 118 · below its mark01/05/2026 · OR 77 par1/05C6OR 77C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 22/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 72 · 1m Slo 120 · beat its mark22/06/2026 · OR 72 par22/06C6OR 72C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 04/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 77 · 1m Fm 121 · beat its mark04/08/2026 · OR 77 par4/08C6OR 77projClass-projected finish: 6th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-04Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st2nd−1
2026-06-22Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd3rd−1
2026-05-01Churchill Downs?9th10th−1
2025-10-15Keeneland?6th7th−1
2025-09-13Churchill Downs?5th6th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0915/101/0522/064/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1350% of fieldRange 4-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength48%

Delivery trend -0.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/09/20255th10/147%60%+0.13
15/10/20256th14/126%55%+0.28
01/05/20269th16/116%20%+0.04
22/06/20262nd11/893%83%-0.09
04/08/20261st11/271%100%+0.29