4
Alder
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 92
Churchill Downs · Race 9 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Ellis Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-07 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 8-10 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -3.8% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/12/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 18/02/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 26/04/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 07/05/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 24/05/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 14/06/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 17/07/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 05/08/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 23/08/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |