3
Extensive
5yo Horse · 8-10 · OR 102
Churchill Downs · Race 9 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength3%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-05-26 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | -3th | +5 |
| 2025-04-07 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-03-16 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 7-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength11%
Delivery trend -5.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/12/2024 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 60% | -0.01 |
| 25/01/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 16/03/2025 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 07/04/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 26/05/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 03/05/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 57% | -0.27 |
| 26/06/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 57% | -0.03 |
| 08/08/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 33% | -0.48 |