9
Firmus
4yo Colt · 8-10 · OR 98
Churchill Downs · Race 9 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Del Mar | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-11 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-07 | Del Mar | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-08-03 | Del Mar | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2024-11-17 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2024-11-02 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 3-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength31%
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08/2024 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 14/09/2024 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 02/11/2024 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 13% | -0.40 |
| 17/11/2024 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 03/08/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 07/09/2025 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 11/10/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 26/07/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |