Maui Strong
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 104
Churchill Downs · Race 9 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
89%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-11-02 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-10-05 | Hawthorne | BHA101 | 2nd | 8th | −5 |
| 2025-08-09 | Colonial Downs | 1 | 6th | 0th | +5 |
| 2025-07-04 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | -2th | +5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -8.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/04/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 82% | +0.66 |
| 03/05/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 07/06/2025 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 80% | -0.14 |
| 04/07/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 09/08/2025 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 29% | -0.37 |
| 05/10/2025 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 86% | -0.06 |
| 02/11/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 64% | -0.15 |
| 25/06/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 14/08/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |