8
Oscar Season
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 101
Churchill Downs · Race 9 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#10
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-27 | Fair Grounds | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-10-22 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-11 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-06-08 | Churchill Downs | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-05-10 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-04-24 | Keeneland | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 8-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -10.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10/2024 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 82% | +0.08 |
| 02/11/2024 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 91% | +0.00 |
| 07/12/2024 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 24/04/2025 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 36% | -0.40 |
| 10/05/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 82% | +0.29 |
| 08/06/2025 | 11th | 7/2 | 82% | 9% | -0.72 |
| 11/09/2025 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 22/10/2025 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 38% | -0.49 |
| 27/11/2025 | 11th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |