2
Out Of Deductions
6yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 106
Churchill Downs · Race 9 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2025-12-27 | Fair Grounds | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-09-28 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-09-06 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength72%
Delivery trend +3.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/04/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 44% | -0.13 |
| 29/05/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 26/06/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 29% | -0.32 |
| 06/09/2025 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 44% | -0.38 |
| 28/09/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 30/11/2025 | 7th | 9/4 | 88% | 45% | -0.43 |
| 27/12/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 29% | -0.45 |
| 10/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 82% | +0.06 |
| 26/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 88% | +0.40 |