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5

Show Of Force

4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 97

Churchill Downs · Race 9 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m

#2

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength55%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Churchill Downs 28/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 101 · 1m110y Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/09/2025 · OR 101 par28/09C5OR 101C5 @ Churchill Downs 02/11/2025 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 100 · 1m1f Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark02/11/2025 · OR 100 parC5 @ Churchill Downs 30/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 96 · 1m 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark30/11/2025 · OR 96 par30/11C5OR 96C5 @ Turfway Park 21/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 85 · 1m 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark21/12/2025 · OR 85 parC5 @ Turfway Park 09/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 84 · 6f Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/01/2026 · OR 84 par9/01C5OR 84C6 @ Turfway Park 05/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 85 · 6f 124 · below its mark05/02/2026 · OR 85 parC8 @ Churchill Downs 10/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 92 · 1m 124 · beat its mark10/05/2026 · OR 92 par10/05C8OR 92C5 @ Churchill Downs 21/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 93 · 7f Fas 125 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark21/06/2026 · OR 93 parC5 @ Ellis Park 01/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 95 · 1m Yie 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 95 par1/08C5OR 95projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-01Ellis Park?1st0th+1
2026-06-21Churchill Downs?3rd2nd+1
2026-05-10Churchill Downs?1st3rd−2
2026-02-05Turfway Park?5th5th0
2026-01-09Turfway Park?3rd2nd+1
2025-12-21Turfway Park?6th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0921/1210/051/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +6.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/09/20254th13/266%63%-0.03
02/11/202511th25/10%9%+0.09
30/11/20258th33/10%30%+0.30
21/12/20256th25/10%44%+0.44
09/01/20263rd12/137%82%+0.45
05/02/20265th7/163%33%-0.30
10/05/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
21/06/20263rd16/116%67%+0.51
01/08/20261st14/126%100%+0.74