10
Tough Little Nut
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 106
Churchill Downs · Race 9 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-06-08 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-05-11 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength41%
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/12/2024 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 89% | +0.52 |
| 22/02/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 82% | -0.04 |
| 07/04/2025 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 20% | -0.64 |
| 11/05/2025 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 64% | +0.03 |
| 08/06/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 55% | +0.07 |
| 12/04/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 88% | +0.61 |
| 05/06/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 24/06/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 78% | +0.20 |
| 26/07/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |