Two Beers By Ten
5yo Horse · 8-10 · OR 101
Churchill Downs · Race 9 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-03-21 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-01-29 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-01-01 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.9% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/2025 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 13% | -0.66 |
| 04/09/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 29/10/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 17% | -0.46 |
| 01/01/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 88% | +0.51 |
| 29/01/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 88% | -0.01 |
| 26/02/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 21/03/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 78% | -0.06 |
| 09/05/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 06/07/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |