7
Abronzal
3yo Gelding · 9-2
Fontainebleau · Prix Mercedes-benz Groupe Autosphere (prix Des Cerfs) Handicap · 1m 2f 205y
#2
Rank
Odds
33/10
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Dieppe | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Clairefontaine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Deauville | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Vichy | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Dieppe | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +3.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/05/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 88% | +0.27 |
| 09/06/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 13/06/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 36% | -0.35 |
| 23/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |
| 08/07/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 25/07/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 57% | -0.01 |
| 11/08/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 29/08/2026 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 88% | +0.82 |
| 09/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 78% | -0.16 |