12
Extravaganza
3yo Filly · 8-12
Fontainebleau · Prix Mercedes-benz Groupe Autosphere (prix Des Cerfs) Handicap · 1m 2f 205y
#4
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 6.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Clairefontaine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Clairefontaine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Chantilly | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Nancy | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Lyon-Parilly | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-11-29 | Lignieres | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength69%
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08/2025 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 56% | +0.50 |
| 20/09/2025 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 29% | -0.37 |
| 08/10/2025 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 27% | -0.10 |
| 29/11/2025 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 08/05/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 05/06/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 19/07/2026 | 10th | 22/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 07/08/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 92% | +0.34 |
| 29/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 75% | -0.18 |