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5

Crew Dragon

9yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 86

Fontainebleau · Prix De L'afasec (prix De La Grotte Aux Cristaux) Claiming Stakes · 6f 211y

#1

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

99%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength61%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.2
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Chantilly 30/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 91 · 7f209y Std 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/03/2026 · OR 91 par30/033OR 912 @ ParisLongchamp 16/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 15 · OR - · 7f209y GS 132 · HIGHER CLASS2 @ Bordeaux Le Bouscat 27/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR - · 7f209y GS 131 · HIGHER CLASS27/0422 @ Lyon-Parilly 08/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 16 · OR - · 7f209y Sft 128 · HIGHER CLASS3 @ Saint-Cloud 22/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 86 · 1m1f207y Sft 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/05/2026 · OR 86 par22/053OR 863 @ Saint-Cloud 08/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 86 · 6f101y GS 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/07/2026 · OR 86 par4 @ Vichy 24/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 86 · 6f211y GS 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 86 par24/074OR 863 @ Deauville 15/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 86 · 6f211y Sft 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 86 par4 @ Le Lion D'angers 04/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 86 · 6f211y Sft 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 86 par4/094OR 86projClass-projected finish: 6th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Le Lion D'angers45th4th+1
2026-08-15Deauville37th5th+2
2026-07-24Vichy42nd1st+1
2026-07-08Saint-Cloud33rd1st+2
2026-05-22Saint-Cloud37th5th+2
2026-05-08Lyon-Parilly212th9th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/038/0524/074/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 4-8 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength10%

Delivery trend -7.4% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/03/20262nd9/276%90%+0.14
16/04/202611th33/10%29%+0.29
27/04/20266th20/10%64%+0.64
08/05/202612th22/10%27%+0.27
22/05/20267th10/147%0%-0.47
08/07/20263rd18/15%67%+0.61
24/07/20262nd11/271%86%+0.15
15/08/20267th9/276%33%-0.43
04/09/20265th10/382%56%-0.27