Franciscano

4yo Gelding · 8-11

Fontainebleau · Prix De L'afasec (prix De La Grotte Aux Cristaux) Claiming Stakes · 6f 211y

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read

Move▼1

Strength54%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: 3

Recent avg: C3.7

Today:

Class gap: +0.8

Higher-class runs: 6

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-08	Lyon-Parilly	4	1st	0th	+1	9.6
2026-08-24	Dieppe	4	3rd	2nd	+1	7.6
2026-08-16	Le Touquet	4	4th	3rd	+1	6.6
2026-08-06	Deauville	4	1st	0th	+1	9.6
2026-07-20	Vichy	3	14th	12th	+2	1.0
2026-06-19	Chantilly	3	6th	4th	+2	5.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▲

Strength100%

Delivery trend +8.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
23/03/2026	6th	7/2	82%	44%	-0.37
22/04/2026	14th	7/2	82%	0%	-0.82
28/05/2026	7th	11/1	42%	40%	-0.02
19/06/2026	6th	17/2	55%	50%	-0.05
20/07/2026	14th	25/1	0%	13%	+0.13
06/08/2026	1st	6/1	68%	100%	+0.32
16/08/2026	4th	11/2	71%	67%	-0.04
24/08/2026	3rd	7/2	82%	78%	-0.04
08/09/2026	1st	3/1	84%	100%	+0.16