2
Don Nicolas
4yo Colt · 9-4
Fontainebleau · Prix De L'imperatrice Eugenie - Handicap Challenge Stakes · 1m 1f 207y
#5
Rank
Odds
19/5
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength39%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 0 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Dax | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | La Teste De Buch | 4 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-07-17 | Dax | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | La Teste De Buch | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Toulouse | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | 2 | 11th | 8th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength55%
Delivery trend -9.0% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/2026 | 11th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 08/06/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 01/07/2026 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 17/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 71% | -0.14 |
| 05/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 92% | +0.29 |
| 23/08/2026 | 4th | 6/5 | 94% | 40% | -0.54 |