Marinaleda

4yo Filly · 10-6

Fontainebleau · Prix Duc D'albuquerque - Trophee Studio Harcourt Stakes · 1m 2f 205y

Rank

Odds

16/10

Win Prob

99%

Place Prob

85%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read

Move▼3

Strength70%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C2.0

Today:

Class gap: +2.5

Higher-class runs: 5

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-06	ParisLongchamp	2	9th	6th	+3	4.0
2026-07-19	Chantilly	2	4th	1st	+3	9.0
2026-06-28	Saint-Cloud	2	7th	4th	+3	6.0
2026-06-08	Angers	?	9th	9th	0	1.0
2026-05-07	ParisLongchamp	2	2nd	-1th	+3	5.0
2026-03-19	Saint-Cloud	2	2nd	-1th	+3	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength80%

Delivery trend -5.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 5. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
13/11/2025	7th	16/1	16%	33%	+0.18
07/12/2025	3rd	15/2	61%	67%	+0.06
28/02/2026	2nd	22/1	0%	93%	+0.93
19/03/2026	2nd	11/4	86%	93%	+0.08
07/05/2026	2nd	9/1	53%	93%	+0.41
08/06/2026	9th	10/3	82%	47%	-0.36
28/06/2026	7th	5/1	74%	57%	-0.17
19/07/2026	4th	12/1	37%	77%	+0.40
06/09/2026	9th	6/1	68%	47%	-0.22