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6

Creativer

4yo Colt · 9-1

Fontainebleau · Prix Philippe Lorain Claiming Stakes · 1m 4f 203y

#7

Rank

Odds

9/5

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼3
Strength81%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Chantilly 02/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR - · 1m1f207y Hvy 123 · HIGHER CLASS2/0422 @ Dieppe 16/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 1m6f200y Ver 123 · HIGHER CLASS16/0523 @ ParisLongchamp 18/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 1m3f204y Sft 130 · HIGHER CLASS18/0632 @ Clairefontaine 11/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 1m6f91y GS 123 · HIGHER CLASS11/0722 @ Le Lion D'angers 02/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 1m6f200y Sft 123 · HIGHER CLASS2/082C1 @ Craon 05/09/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR - · 1m3f204y Hvy 128 · HIGHER CLASS5/09C1projClass-projected finish: 7th of 7
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Craon?10th6th+4
2026-08-02Le Lion D'angers24th1st+3
2026-07-11Clairefontaine25th2nd+3
2026-06-18ParisLongchamp37th5th+2
2026-05-16Dieppe27th4th+3
2026-04-02Chantilly29th6th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0416/0518/0611/072/085/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength93%

Delivery trend -4.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/04/20269th40/10%20%+0.20
16/05/20267th80/10%33%+0.33
18/06/20267th25/10%14%+0.14
11/07/20265th33/10%33%+0.33
02/08/20264th11/142%50%+0.08
05/09/202610th50/10%0%0.00