El Caney
8yo Gelding · 8-11
Fontainebleau · Prix Philippe Lorain Claiming Stakes · 1m 4f 203y
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 8.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Deauville | 2 | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-08-06 | Vichy | 3 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-06-28 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-06-15 | ParisLongchamp | 2 | 16th | 13th | +3 |
| 2026-05-31 | Chantilly | 1 | 15th | 11th | +4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 9th | 7th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +8.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/03/2026 | 16th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/04/2026 | 16th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/05/2026 | 14th | 50/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 15/05/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 31/05/2026 | 15th | 66/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 15/06/2026 | 16th | 125/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/06/2026 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 06/08/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 25/08/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |