5
Marchemalo
4yo Gelding · 9-1
Fontainebleau · Prix Philippe Lorain Claiming Stakes · 1m 4f 203y
#2
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
32%
Place Prob
31%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength54%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Vichy | 4 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-07-23 | Vichy | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-06-22 | Lyon-Parilly | 2 | 10th | 7th | +3 |
| 2026-05-18 | Marseille-borely | 2 | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-04-16 | Salon-De-Provence | 3 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-03-23 | Chantilly | 2 | 14th | 11th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength52%
Delivery trend -2.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 16/02/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 09/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 90% | +0.19 |
| 23/03/2026 | 14th | 12/1 | 37% | 7% | -0.30 |
| 16/04/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 82% | +0.08 |
| 18/05/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 85% | +0.06 |
| 22/06/2026 | 10th | 8/1 | 58% | 25% | -0.33 |
| 23/07/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 14% | -0.67 |
| 03/09/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |