8
Merkur
6yo Horse · 8-11
Fontainebleau · Prix Philippe Lorain Claiming Stakes · 1m 4f 203y
#3
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength59%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.7
Today:
Class gap: +1.8
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-08-29 | Tarbes | 4 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-07-08 | Dax | 4 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-06-14 | Chantilly | 1 | 17th | 13th | +4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-03-08 | Chantilly | 1 | 8th | 4th | +4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 5-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength16%
Delivery trend +2.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/2025 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 06/11/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 12/12/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 63% | -0.06 |
| 08/03/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 22/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 83% | -0.09 |
| 14/06/2026 | 17th | 28/1 | 0% | 6% | +0.06 |
| 08/07/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 29/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 83% | -0.11 |
| 07/09/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 29% | -0.48 |