1
Trabuco
8yo Gelding · 9-5
Fontainebleau · Prix Philippe Lorain Claiming Stakes · 1m 4f 203y
#4
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength46%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Clairefontaine | 3 | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-06-11 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-05-24 | Chateaubriant | 2 | 9th | 6th | +3 |
| 2026-05-01 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2025-12-12 | Deauville | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-11-18 | Chantilly | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength51%
Delivery trend -3.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |
| 04/10/2025 | 6th | 150/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 25/10/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 56% | -0.02 |
| 18/11/2025 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 12/12/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 01/05/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 24/05/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 11/06/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 55% | -0.27 |
| 29/08/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |