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Authentic Guitar

3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 74

Gulfstream · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 5f

#3

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼3
Strength90%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: +3.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Gulfstream 10/05/2025 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR - · 5f Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS10/05C5C6 @ Gulfstream 05/06/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 73 · 5f Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/06/2025 · OR 73 par5/06C6OR 73projClass-projected finish: 1st of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2025-06-05Gulfstream?4th1st+3
2025-05-10Gulfstream?4th-1th+4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/055/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 8-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -108.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/05/20254th40/10%70%+0.70
05/06/20254th4/179%40%-0.39