3
Nenas Star
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 60
Gulfstream · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 5f
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-27 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-12 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 8-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -11.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 12/09/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 27/02/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 14/06/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 71% | +0.03 |
| 13/07/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 10/08/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 22/08/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |