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3

Nipsey

5yo Mare · 8-13 · OR 61

Gulfstream · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m

#2

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

8%

Place Prob

20%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Gulfstream 18/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 60 · 1m 124 · beat its mark18/07/2025 · OR 60 par18/07C9OR 60C9 @ Gulfstream 08/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 61 · 1m 124 · below its mark08/08/2025 · OR 61 parC9 @ Gulfstream 29/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 59 · 1m Fas 124 · beat its mark29/08/2025 · OR 59 par29/08C9OR 59C9 @ Gulfstream 19/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 64 · 1m 124 · below its mark19/09/2025 · OR 64 parC9 @ Gulfstream 31/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 65 · 1m70y 124 · below its mark31/10/2025 · OR 65 par31/10C9OR 65C9 @ Gulfstream 12/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 65 · 1m 126 · below its mark12/06/2026 · OR 65 parC9 @ Gulfstream 05/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 55 · 1m 126 · below its mark05/07/2026 · OR 55 par5/07C9OR 55C9 @ Gulfstream 26/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 57 · 7f Fas 126 · below its mark26/07/2026 · OR 57 parC9 @ Gulfstream 16/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 60 · 1m Fas 124 · beat its mark16/08/2026 · OR 60 par16/08C9OR 60projClass-projected finish: 5th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-16Gulfstream?1st2nd−1
2026-07-26Gulfstream?4th5th−1
2026-07-05Gulfstream?3rd4th−1
2026-06-12Gulfstream?2nd3rd−1
2025-10-31Gulfstream?5th6th−1
2025-09-19Gulfstream?3rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0719/095/0716/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength87%

Delivery trend +1.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/07/20252nd11/271%83%+0.12
08/08/20254th3/184%50%-0.34
29/08/20252nd11/271%83%+0.12
19/09/20253rd4/179%78%-0.01
31/10/20255th14/126%50%+0.24
12/06/20262nd16/116%83%+0.68
05/07/20263rd10/147%60%+0.13
26/07/20264th5/174%50%-0.24
16/08/20261st3/184%100%+0.16