Marc Kentucky
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 76
Gulfstream · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-19 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2025-08-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -21.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 19/10/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/07/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 71% | +0.03 |
| 22/08/2026 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 29% | -0.57 |