Stan Theman Musial

3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 77

Gulfstream · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

59%

Place Prob

39%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼2

Strength69%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 8.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.6

Today:

Class gap: +1.9

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-09	Gulfstream	?	8th	8th	0	2.0
2026-08-03	Gulfstream	?	9th	6th	+3	4.0
2026-05-03	Santa Anita	?	9th	6th	+3	4.0
2026-02-22	Santa Anita	?	8th	5th	+3	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 5-6 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -29.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
22/02/2026	8th	25/1	0%	0%	0.00
03/05/2026	9th	40/1	0%	11%	+0.11
03/08/2026	9th	9/2	76%	0%	-0.76
09/08/2026	8th	10/3	82%	13%	-0.70