Big Dividend
4yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 78
Gulfstream · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-07 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-04-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-03-08 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-01-09 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-12-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-11-14 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08/2025 | 2nd | 100/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 19/09/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 18/10/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 14/11/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 12/12/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/01/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 08/03/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 05/04/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 07/06/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |