6
Brick City
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 76
Gulfstream · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-04-17 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-02-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-02-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 9-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -11.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 88% | +0.16 |
| 26/02/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 17/04/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 23/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 26/06/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 06/09/2026 | 3rd | 4/11 | 98% | 50% | -0.48 |