1
Malcolm X
6yo Horse · 8-12 · OR 89
Gulfstream · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 4-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength25%
Delivery trend -8.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 04/09/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 03/04/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 26/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 88% | -0.07 |
| 06/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 03/07/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 19/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 15/08/2026 | 7th | 3/1 | 84% | 14% | -0.70 |