5
Operatnthunderbolt
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 89
Gulfstream · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength6%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-15 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-02 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength46%
Delivery trend -5.8% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/05/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 78% | -0.08 |
| 06/02/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 88% | +0.61 |
| 05/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 02/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 86% | -0.02 |
| 29/05/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 19/06/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 19/07/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 15/08/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |
| 06/09/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |