Venezuelan Hope
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 91
Gulfstream · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
62%
Place Prob
51%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-15 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-06-19 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-02-27 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-01-29 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 89% | +0.02 |
| 01/11/2025 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 02/01/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 29/01/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 27/02/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 19/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 18/07/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 15/08/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 06/09/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |