Roger That Dana
3yo Colt · 8-10 · OR 68
Gulfstream · Race 7 - Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-04-17 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-03-07 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 9th | 1st | +7 |
| 2026-01-03 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | -2th | +3 |
| 2025-11-29 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | -1th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -18.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 29/11/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 78% | +0.30 |
| 03/01/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 07/03/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 17/04/2026 | 5th | 8/15 | 97% | 0% | -0.97 |
| 19/07/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |
| 23/08/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |