Teofimo
5yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 77
Gulfstream · Race 7 - Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-07-18 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-05-15 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-08-29 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2025-06-20 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/04/2024 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 28/11/2024 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 25/04/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 20/06/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 29/08/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 15/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 19/06/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 18/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 90% | +0.22 |
| 15/08/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |