8
Fourth And Central
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 93
Gulfstream · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f
#2
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
23%
Place Prob
27%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-06 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-08-09 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-05-31 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +3.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 09/08/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |
| 06/09/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 21/06/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 25/07/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 30/08/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |