Sticky Mcshnickens
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 83
Gulfstream · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f
#7
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 3.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-07-19 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-01-08 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-11 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09/2025 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 86% | -0.08 |
| 24/10/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 14/11/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |
| 11/12/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 08/01/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 86% | -0.06 |
| 30/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 27/06/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 19/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 88% | +0.14 |
| 15/08/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 14% | -0.62 |