1
Xy Speed
10yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 97
Gulfstream · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-25 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-07 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 5-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength23%
Delivery trend -7.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 04/01/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 88% | +0.35 |
| 07/02/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 43% | -0.20 |
| 07/03/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 05/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 86% | -0.02 |
| 01/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 25/06/2026 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 25/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 75% | -0.17 |
| 09/08/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 17% | -0.57 |