4
Dominican Pirate
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 63
Gulfstream · Race 9 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
33%
Place Prob
31%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength73%
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/02/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 07/03/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 29/03/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 17/04/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 01/05/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 23/05/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 05/07/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 09/08/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 30/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 60% | -0.33 |