5
Fifteen Hundred R
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 69
Gulfstream · Race 9 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
16%
Place Prob
22%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-01-04 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-12-19 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-26 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +3.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09/2025 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 26/11/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 43% | -0.15 |
| 19/12/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 04/01/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 28/03/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 17/04/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 06/09/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |