IvyArcIvyArc
8

Pen Lan Icon

2yo Filly · 9-2

Hamilton · Wee Brian Reilly Memorial EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race) · 1m 68y

#3

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Territories filly who showed more than first time up switched to turf when third in a Beverley maiden (7.3f, heavy) 3 weeks ago, looking suited by the emphasis on stamina. Step up to 1m a plus on that evidence and underfoot conditions will certainly hold no fears.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Lingfield 15/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 6f1y Std 12815/0854 @ Beverley 29/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR - · 7f75y Sft 12829/084projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 2
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Beverley43rd3rd0
2026-08-15Lingfield57th8th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0829/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +50.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/08/20267th25/10%33%+0.33
29/08/20263rd20/10%83%+0.83