Aura Of Melania
2yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 64
Hamilton · Hamilton Park Nursery · 5f 7y
#6
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Catterick | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-17 | Catterick | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-27 | Ripon | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Leicester | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-25 | Newcastle | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-15 | Wetherby | 3 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -7.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/05/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 15/06/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 25/06/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 14/07/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 56% | -0.02 |
| 27/07/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 17/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 08/09/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 86% | -0.08 |