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5

Concert Pitch

2yo Colt · 9-6 · OR 72

Hamilton · Hamilton Park Nursery · 5f 7y

#5

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Runner-up 4 times prior to justifying heavy support in emphatic style in a Class 6 nursery at Beverley (5f) last month. Not in same form on back of rise in class when sixth at Thirsk (5f, good to soft) but he still appeals as being on a fair mark and this rates less demanding.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength65%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Beverley 23/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 5f Gd 13023/0454 @ Beverley 04/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 5f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS2 @ Windsor 18/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR - · 6f12y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS18/0522 @ Beverley 30/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 5f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Hamilton 17/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 5f7y Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS17/0645 @ Beverley 20/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 66 · 5f Goo 127 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 66 par5 @ Carlisle 11/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 65 · 5f Goo 125 · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 65 par11/085OR 656 @ Beverley 13/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 65 · 5f Goo 135 · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 65 par4 @ Thirsk 05/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 72 · 5f Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 72 par5/094OR 72projClass-projected finish: 4th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Thirsk46th5th+1
2026-08-13Beverley61st2nd−1
2026-08-11Carlisle52nd2nd0
2026-07-20Beverley52nd2nd0
2026-06-17Hamilton42nd1st+1
2026-05-30Beverley26th2nd+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0430/0511/085/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength48%

Delivery trend -6.7% per run

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/04/20263rd80/10%75%+0.75
04/05/20262nd9/488%88%-0.01
18/05/20266th4/179%55%-0.24
30/05/20266th66/10%38%+0.38
17/06/20262nd13/266%80%+0.14
20/07/20262nd14/126%90%+0.64
11/08/20262nd9/488%83%-0.05
13/08/20261st8/1597%100%+0.03
05/09/20266th10/382%38%-0.45