4
Pj's Corner
2yo Colt · 9-7 · OR 73
Hamilton · Hamilton Park Nursery · 5f 7y
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Bath | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Chepstow | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Leicester | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Bath | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Ripon | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Lingfield | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength59%
Delivery trend -6.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/05/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 18/06/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 01/07/2026 | 3rd | 66/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 29/07/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 29/08/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 12/09/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 44% | -0.40 |